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Steel stocks rose sharply, do not rush to celebrate!
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Despite a strong recovery in recent times, however, as well as prospects for the steel industry in the medium term steel stocks were still big question mark.
In recent years, the iron ore price continues to drop at the massive steel imports into Vietnam has led to steel prices plummeted, significant impact on domestic enterprises. 2015 many enterprises hundred billion loss as Asia Huu Lien case holes 387 billion, 173 billion Tienlen hole ....
With negative results, understandable when shares of steel companies on the stock market plunge continuity.
However, in the first months of 2016, the steel industry has the story is somewhat brighter than the previous year.
The first is the recovery of the world iron ore prices. After a period of consecutive declines, the price of iron ore has increased by 50% compared to the end of 2015 to the threshold of 53 USD / tonne and this factor has a positive impact on the world price of steel.
Iron ore prices recovered strongly in recent times
Iron ore prices recovered strongly in recent times
Domestically, meets plea steel enterprises before oversupply, the Ministry of Industry and Trade has recently decided to apply temporary safeguard duty on steel billet and steel products imported long at the rate of time 23.3% respectively and 14.2%.
Although not until 22/3, decided to apply the new tax takes effect officially but in those days, the domestic steel prices have risen very sharply. Current long truck queues stored in steel mills are not uncommon.
With the recovery of steel prices, cheap inventory in 2015 will be sold in quarter 1/2016 with high prices, led to earnings expectations became more positive and this helped stocks steel as HPG, HSG, NKG, POM, VGS, VIS, TLH, SMC ... .Turn increased sharply in recent sessions.
POM (Pomina) consecutive increase after a private hearing safeguard duty
POM (Pomina) consecutive increase after a private hearing safeguard duty
Do not rush to celebrate!
Although steel prices have recovered in recent times, however, the steel industry outlook in the medium term is not necessarily out of fear. According VCBS Securities, the strong recovery in the short term as well as iron ore prices of steel products not properly reflect supply and demand in the market now.
Because of China's steel inventory at about 500 million tonnes this. Despite China have cut 1.8 million workers and steel industry coke production decreased 500 thousand tons / year, but inventories are too large to absorb the market this year.
Besides, the recovery of iron ore price is said to be the result of speculative activities after falling stage, not necessarily coming from stronger demand in the world.
VCBS evaluating the iron ore recovery will boost manufacturers boost supply ore to quickly release the inventory. Accordingly, medium and long term prospects of the iron ore price is not too bright.
With these factors, probably should not expect too much on the big waves with steel stocks. Short-term risks might increase, especially in the context of the steel stocks, as well as Vietnam's stock market has had a strong recovery phase from the beginning of the year and the pressure is quite big adjustment.
Hoang Anh
According to Young Intellectuals
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18/8/2025
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